Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 1–0· regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 02 Oct 2026 18:20 UTC. Source synced 27 Sep 2026 23:56 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 0.515· lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Home win.
Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 27 Sep 2026 04:40 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. Not captured in this saved publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Defensor Sporting
WLDLL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
2 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%
Defensor Sporting scored 2 and conceded 8 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Defensor Sporting 1–0 Deportivo MaldonadoPrimera División · UTC
Defensor Sporting 1–3 Atletico TorquePrimera División · UTC
Defensor Sporting 0–0 RentistasCopa Uruguay · UTC
Defensor Sporting 0–4 Liverpool MontevideoPrimera División · UTC
Defensor Sporting 0–1 WanderersPrimera División · UTC
Away matches
Danubio
DLLDD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
3 / 6
Over 2.5 frequency
1/5 20%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%
Danubio scored 3 and conceded 6 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Juventud 1–1 DanubioPrimera División · UTC
Atletico Torque 2–0 DanubioCopa Uruguay · UTC
Progreso 1–0 DanubioPrimera División · UTC
Boston River 0–0 DanubioPrimera División · UTC
Albion FC 2–2 DanubioPrimera División · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Defensor Sporting
xG: N/A. Not captured in this saved publication.
Away matches
Danubio
xG: N/A. Not captured in this saved publication.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Team news: N/A. Not captured in this saved publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Defensor Sporting
7.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 20 Sep 2026 19:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Primera: Tabla Anual
Position 12
Points / played
32 / 29
Table source synced 27 Sep 2026 18:15 UTC.
Primera: Promedios
Position 8
Points / played
93 / 66
Table source synced 27 Sep 2026 18:15 UTC.
Primera: Torneo Intermedio
Position 7
Points / played
6 / 7
Table source synced 27 Sep 2026 18:15 UTC.
Primera: Apertura
Position 8
Points / played
21 / 15
Table source synced 27 Sep 2026 18:15 UTC.
Primera: Clausura
Position 13
Points / played
5 / 7
Table source synced 27 Sep 2026 18:15 UTC.
Danubio
3.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 24 Sep 2026 18:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Primera: Tabla Anual
Position 16
Points / played
26 / 29
Table source synced 27 Sep 2026 18:15 UTC.
Primera: Promedios
Position 15
Points / played
69 / 66
Table source synced 27 Sep 2026 18:15 UTC.
Primera: Torneo Intermedio
Position 8
Points / played
4 / 7
Table source synced 27 Sep 2026 18:15 UTC.
Primera: Apertura
Position 11
Points / played
18 / 15
Table source synced 27 Sep 2026 18:15 UTC.
Primera: Clausura
Position 15
Points / played
4 / 7
Table source synced 27 Sep 2026 18:15 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
Danubio 0–0 Defensor SportingPrimera División · UTC
Defensor Sporting 2–1 DanubioPrimera División - Clausura · UTC
Danubio 1–1 Defensor SportingPrimera División - Apertura · UTC
Danubio 1–1 Defensor SportingPrimera División - Clausura · UTC
Defensor Sporting 1–0 DanubioPrimera División - Apertura · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 27 Sep 2026 18:20 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.