Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 3–4· regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 28 Oct 2026 04:31 UTC. Source synced 27 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Helmond Sport
LDWWD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
10 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%
Helmond Sport scored 10 and conceded 8 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Helmond Sport 0–2 NAC BredaEerste Divisie · UTC
Helmond Sport 2–2 HeraclesEerste Divisie · UTC
Helmond Sport 3–1 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie · UTC
Helmond Sport 4–2 VVV VenloEerste Divisie · UTC
Helmond Sport 1–1 WaalwijkEerste Divisie · UTC
Away matches
Willem II
LLLDL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
6 / 16
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
5/5 100%
Willem II scored 6 and conceded 16 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Sparta Rotterdam 3–2 Willem IIEredivisie · UTC
Utrecht 3–1 Willem IIEredivisie · UTC
Ajax 5–1 Willem IIEredivisie · UTC
AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Willem IIEredivisie · UTC
GO Ahead Eagles 4–1 Willem IIEredivisie · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Helmond Sport
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
2.68 / 3.96
xG per match, for / against
0.89 / 1.32
Goals on this same sample
3 / 5
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Helmond Sport vs NAC BredaxG for / against Helmond Sport: 0.73 / 1.86
Statistics synced: team 23 Oct 2026 19:45 UTC; opponent 23 Oct 2026 19:45 UTC.
Helmond Sport vs HeraclesxG for / against Helmond Sport: 1.58 / 2.06
Statistics synced: team 16 Oct 2026 21:25 UTC; opponent 16 Oct 2026 21:25 UTC.
Helmond Sport vs WaalwijkxG for / against Helmond Sport: 0.37 / 0.04
Statistics synced: team 21 Aug 2026 19:14 UTC; opponent 21 Aug 2026 19:14 UTC.
Away matches
Willem II
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
3.82 / 8.74
xG per match, for / against
1.27 / 2.91
Goals on this same sample
4 / 11
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem IIxG for / against Willem II: 1.63 / 3.65
Statistics synced: team 21 Oct 2026 18:24 UTC; opponent 21 Oct 2026 18:24 UTC.
Utrecht vs Willem IIxG for / against Willem II: 0.61 / 1.30
Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 11:05 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 11:05 UTC.
Ajax vs Willem IIxG for / against Willem II: 1.58 / 3.79
Statistics synced: team 01 Oct 2026 06:07 UTC; opponent 01 Oct 2026 06:07 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Helmond Sport
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Willem II
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Helmond Sport
4 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 23 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
League position and points: N/A.
Willem II
3.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 24 Oct 2026 16:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
League position and points: N/A.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 27 Oct 2026 00:41 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.