KNVB Beker · 27 Oct 2026

Roda vs De GraafschapMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 1–0 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 28 Oct 2026 04:31 UTC. Source synced 27 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Roda

DWWDW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 4
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Roda scored 8 and conceded 4 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Roda 1–1 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie · UTC
  2. Roda 2–0 WaalwijkEerste Divisie · UTC
  3. Roda 1–0 VitesseEerste Divisie · UTC
  4. Roda 2–2 NAC BredaEerste Divisie · UTC
  5. Roda 2–1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie · UTC

Away matches

De Graafschap

LDWLL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
6 / 12
Over 2.5 frequency
5/5 100%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%

De Graafschap scored 6 and conceded 12 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Jong Ajax 2–1 De GraafschapEerste Divisie · UTC
  2. FC Eindhoven 2–2 De GraafschapEerste Divisie · UTC
  3. Emmen 1–2 De GraafschapEerste Divisie · UTC
  4. Heracles 5–0 De GraafschapEerste Divisie · UTC
  5. VVV Venlo 2–1 De GraafschapEerste Divisie · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Roda

Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
6.83 / 5.55
xG per match, for / against
1.71 / 1.39
Goals on this same sample
7 / 4

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Roda vs Jong PSV U21 xG for / against Roda: 1.60 / 1.33 Statistics synced: team 23 Oct 2026 19:45 UTC; opponent 23 Oct 2026 19:45 UTC.
  2. Roda vs Waalwijk xG for / against Roda: 0.49 / 0.78 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 08:25 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 08:25 UTC.
  3. Roda vs NAC Breda xG for / against Roda: 1.98 / 3.21 Statistics synced: team 28 Aug 2026 20:21 UTC; opponent 28 Aug 2026 20:21 UTC.
  4. Roda vs Helmond Sport xG for / against Roda: 2.76 / 0.23 Statistics synced: team 14 Aug 2026 20:02 UTC; opponent 14 Aug 2026 20:02 UTC.

Away matches

De Graafschap

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
1.53 / 4.14
xG per match, for / against
0.77 / 2.07
Goals on this same sample
2 / 4

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap xG for / against De Graafschap: 0.80 / 2.89 Statistics synced: team 22 Oct 2026 18:15 UTC; opponent 22 Oct 2026 18:15 UTC.
  2. VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap xG for / against De Graafschap: 0.73 / 1.25 Statistics synced: team 23 Aug 2026 16:52 UTC; opponent 23 Aug 2026 16:52 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Roda

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

De Graafschap

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Roda

4 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 23 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

League position and points: N/A.

De Graafschap

4 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 23 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

League position and points: N/A.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 27 Oct 2026 00:41 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1641984
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
e488ca3642240d1459506d7dcc71cf2e42e8dc5480e7da5ed918b1101cdcf613