Indian Super League · 05 Nov 2026

ATK Mohun Bagan vs OdishaMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: 05 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UTC.

Published 05 Nov 2026 · 00:20 UTC. This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. It is not a live feed.

Recorded match result

Result pending — kickoff has not passed.

Saved forecast evaluation

Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win: 45%
Draw: 45%
Away win: 10%

Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:08 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 04 Nov 2026 20:46 UTC; synced 05 Nov 2026 00:08 UTC. Saved 05 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds: 1.28
Without margin: 69.71%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: -24.71 pp

Draw

Decimal odds: 4.85
Without margin: 18.40%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: +26.60 pp

Away win

Decimal odds: 7.5
Without margin: 11.90%
Provider estimate: 10.00%
Provider − market: -1.90 pp

Raw implied probability total: 112.08%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

ATK Mohun Bagan

WWWDW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 11 / 2
Over 2.5 frequency: 2/5 40%
BTTS frequency: 2/5 40%

ATK Mohun Bagan scored 11 and conceded 2 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

31 Oct 2026ATK Mohun Bagan 2–1 Minerva PunjabIndian Super League · UTC
26 Oct 2026ATK Mohun Bagan 1–0 ChennaiyinIndian Super League · UTC
08 Oct 2026ATK Mohun Bagan 1–0 East Bengal IIIFA Shield · UTC
29 Sep 2026ATK Mohun Bagan 1–1 NorthEast UnitedIFA Shield · UTC
23 Sep 2026ATK Mohun Bagan 6–0 Sreenidi DeccanIFA Shield · UTC

Away matches

Odisha

DLDWL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 4 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency: 3/5 60%
BTTS frequency: 3/5 60%

Odisha scored 4 and conceded 7 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

17 Oct 2026Inter Kashi 1–1 OdishaIndian Super League · UTC
14 Oct 2026Minerva Punjab 2–1 OdishaIndian Super League · UTC
17 May 2026Jamshedpur 0–0 OdishaIndian Super League · UTC
08 May 2026SC Delhi 1–2 OdishaIndian Super League · UTC
28 Apr 2026East Bengal II 3–0 OdishaIndian Super League · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

ATK Mohun Bagan

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against: 3.33 / 3.82
xG per match, for / against: 1.67 / 1.91
Goals on this same sample: 3 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample

31 Oct 2026 ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab xG for / against ATK Mohun Bagan: 1.73 / 1.01 Statistics synced: team 04 Nov 2026 15:06 UTC; opponent 04 Nov 2026 15:06 UTC.
26 Oct 2026 ATK Mohun Bagan vs Chennaiyin xG for / against ATK Mohun Bagan: 1.60 / 2.81 Statistics synced: team 04 Nov 2026 03:46 UTC; opponent 04 Nov 2026 03:46 UTC.

Away matches

Odisha

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

ATK Mohun Bagan

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Odisha

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

ATK Mohun Bagan

5 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 31 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Super league: Position 1
Points / played: 9 / 4

Table source synced 04 Nov 2026 23:19 UTC.

Odisha

12 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 24 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Super league: Position 10
Points / played: 2 / 3

Table source synced 04 Nov 2026 23:19 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

06 Mar 2026ATK Mohun Bagan 5–1 OdishaIndian Super League · UTC
23 Feb 2025ATK Mohun Bagan 1–0 OdishaIndian Super League · UTC
10 Nov 2024Odisha 1–1 ATK Mohun BaganIndian Super League · UTC
28 Apr 2024ATK Mohun Bagan 2–0 OdishaIndian Super League · UTC
23 Apr 2024Odisha 2–1 ATK Mohun BaganIndian Super League · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 05 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record

Fixture ID: 1642191
Method: factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum: 44fd528580d3c6787a6d5d9f798e46a58184afcef87e7ae252846bc017b5559c