Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 2–1· regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 02 Oct 2026 18:20 UTC. Source synced 02 Oct 2026 18:16 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 0.635· lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Home win.
Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
35%
Draw
35%
Away win
30%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 02 Oct 2026 00:09 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Lille
WLDWL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
9 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%
Lille scored 9 and conceded 7 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Lille 2–0 Estac TroyesLigue 1 · UTC
Lille 2–3 Real BetisUEFA Champions League · UTC
Lille 2–2 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1 · UTC
Lille 3–0 RAAL La LouvièreFriendlies Clubs · UTC
Lille 0–2 AuxerreLigue 1 · UTC
Away matches
Zulte Waregem
LWDDL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
5 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%
Zulte Waregem scored 5 and conceded 7 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Anderlecht 3–0 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League · UTC
Kortrijk 0–2 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League · UTC
KVC Westerlo 2–2 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League · UTC
Union St. Gilloise 0–0 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League · UTC
Kryvbas KR 2–1 Zulte WaregemFriendlies Clubs · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Lille
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
4.58 / 2.09
xG per match, for / against
1.53 / 0.70
Goals on this same sample
4 / 4
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Lille vs Estac TroyesxG for / against Lille: 1.65 / 0.38
Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 04:10 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 04:10 UTC.
Lille vs Paris Saint GermainxG for / against Lille: 1.09 / 1.29
Statistics synced: team 29 Aug 2026 04:18 UTC; opponent 29 Aug 2026 04:18 UTC.
Lille vs AuxerrexG for / against Lille: 1.84 / 0.42
Statistics synced: team 17 May 2026 21:45 UTC; opponent 17 May 2026 21:45 UTC.
Away matches
Zulte Waregem
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
2.50 / 4.75
xG per match, for / against
1.25 / 2.38
Goals on this same sample
2 / 5
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Anderlecht vs Zulte WaregemxG for / against Zulte Waregem: 0.99 / 2.59
Statistics synced: team 30 Sep 2026 05:57 UTC; opponent 30 Sep 2026 05:57 UTC.
KVC Westerlo vs Zulte WaregemxG for / against Zulte Waregem: 1.51 / 2.16
Statistics synced: team 31 Aug 2026 06:20 UTC; opponent 31 Aug 2026 06:20 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Lille
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Zulte Waregem
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Lille
11.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 20 Sep 2026 15:15 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
League position and points: N/A.
Zulte Waregem
12.7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 19 Sep 2026 18:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
League position and points: N/A.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 02 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.