Friendlies Clubs · 02 Oct 2026

Red Bull Salzburg vs FC BW LinzMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 1–2 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 02 Oct 2026 18:20 UTC. Source synced 02 Oct 2026 18:16 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 1.215 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Away win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 02 Oct 2026 00:22 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 01 Oct 2026 20:10 UTC; synced 02 Oct 2026 00:22 UTC. Saved 02 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
1.33
Without margin
69.89%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
-24.89 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
5.2
Without margin
17.88%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+27.12 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
7.6
Without margin
12.23%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-2.23 pp

Raw implied probability total: 107.58%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Red Bull Salzburg

WWWWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
16 / 2
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

Red Bull Salzburg scored 16 and conceded 2 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Red Bull Salzburg 3–0 Sturm GrazBundesliga · UTC
  2. Red Bull Salzburg 5–1 Rapid ViennaBundesliga · UTC
  3. Red Bull Salzburg 4–1 Austria ViennaBundesliga · UTC
  4. Red Bull Salzburg 3–0 Mjallby AIFUEFA Europa League · UTC
  5. Red Bull Salzburg 1–0 PafosUEFA Europa League · UTC

Away matches

FC BW Linz

LWWDD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

FC BW Linz scored 8 and conceded 5 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. SV Kapfenberg 2–1 FC BW Linz2. Liga · UTC
  2. SKN ST. Polten 0–1 FC BW Linz2. Liga · UTC
  3. Austria Vienna (Am) 0–3 FC BW Linz2. Liga · UTC
  4. Puskas Academy 1–1 FC BW LinzFriendlies Clubs · UTC
  5. FK Crvena Zvezda 2–2 FC BW LinzFriendlies Clubs · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Red Bull Salzburg

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
3.27 / 1.18
xG per match, for / against
1.64 / 0.59
Goals on this same sample
7 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz xG for / against Red Bull Salzburg: 1.61 / 0.49 Statistics synced: team 30 Sep 2026 13:16 UTC; opponent 30 Sep 2026 13:16 UTC.
  2. Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna xG for / against Red Bull Salzburg: 1.66 / 0.69 Statistics synced: team 31 Aug 2026 08:17 UTC; opponent 31 Aug 2026 08:17 UTC.

Away matches

FC BW Linz

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Red Bull Salzburg

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

FC BW Linz

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Red Bull Salzburg

12 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 20 Sep 2026 15:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

League position and points: N/A.

FC BW Linz

13.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 18 Sep 2026 18:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

League position and points: N/A.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 02 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1642926
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
a57a327f9cdc7ec6dcb77c5eb1323f6a8df30ff01cd87345f2cc83bac64529f7