Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 1–2· regulation time
Result record v2 · recorded 03 Oct 2026 14:11 UTC. Source synced 03 Oct 2026 14:06 UTC.
Result changes (1)
v1 · NS
Initial source observation · 03 Oct 2026 12:01 UTC
Source synced 03 Oct 2026 11:56 UTC · source kickoff 03 Oct 2026 10:30 UTC
v2 · FT · 1–2
Source status, score or kickoff changed · 03 Oct 2026 14:11 UTC
Source synced 03 Oct 2026 14:06 UTC · source kickoff 03 Oct 2026 10:30 UTC
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 1.215· lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Away win.
Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 03 Oct 2026 00:22 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Jagiellonia
WLWWL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
12 / 6
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%
Jagiellonia scored 12 and conceded 6 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Jagiellonia 5–0 Suduva MarijampoleFriendlies Clubs · UTC
Jagiellonia 1–3 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa · UTC
Jagiellonia 2–1 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa · UTC
Jagiellonia 4–0 SaburtaloUEFA Europa League · UTC
Jagiellonia 0–2 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa · UTC
Away matches
Polonia Warszawa
LWWLW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
6 / 4
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%
Polonia Warszawa scored 6 and conceded 4 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Stal Rzeszów 2–1 Polonia WarszawaI Liga · UTC
Górnik Polkowice 0–1 Polonia WarszawaCup · UTC
Nieciecza 1–3 Polonia WarszawaI Liga · UTC
Pogoń Siedlce 1–0 Polonia WarszawaI Liga · UTC
Puszcza Niepołomice 0–1 Polonia WarszawaI Liga · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Jagiellonia
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
3.48 / 2.92
xG per match, for / against
1.74 / 1.46
Goals on this same sample
1 / 5
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Jagiellonia vs Legia WarszawaxG for / against Jagiellonia: 2.30 / 1.75
Statistics synced: team 30 Sep 2026 13:27 UTC; opponent 30 Sep 2026 13:27 UTC.
Jagiellonia vs Widzew ŁódźxG for / against Jagiellonia: 1.18 / 1.17
Statistics synced: team 09 Aug 2026 20:17 UTC; opponent 09 Aug 2026 20:17 UTC.
Away matches
Polonia Warszawa
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Jagiellonia
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Polonia Warszawa
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Jagiellonia
3.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 29 Sep 2026 13:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
League position and points: N/A.
Polonia Warszawa
13.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 19 Sep 2026 13:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
League position and points: N/A.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 03 Oct 2026 00:31 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.