Friendlies Clubs · 03 Oct 2026

Chindia Targoviste vs Petrolul PloiestiMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 1–0 · regulation time

Result record v2 · recorded 03 Oct 2026 10:20 UTC. Source synced 03 Oct 2026 10:16 UTC.

Result changes (1)
  1. v1 · 1H Initial source observation · 03 Oct 2026 08:41 UTC Source synced 03 Oct 2026 08:41 UTC · source kickoff 03 Oct 2026 08:00 UTC
  2. v2 · FT · 1–0 Source status, score or kickoff changed · 03 Oct 2026 10:20 UTC Source synced 03 Oct 2026 10:16 UTC · source kickoff 03 Oct 2026 08:00 UTC

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 1.215 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
10%
Draw
45%
Away win
45%
Equal top estimates: Draw / Away

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 03 Oct 2026 00:07 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 02 Oct 2026 20:16 UTC; synced 03 Oct 2026 00:07 UTC. Saved 03 Oct 2026 00:10 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
3.22
Without margin
27.66%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-17.66 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
3.5
Without margin
25.45%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+19.55 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
1.9
Without margin
46.88%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
-1.88 pp

Raw implied probability total: 112.26%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Chindia Targoviste

WLLWD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
11 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Chindia Targoviste scored 11 and conceded 7 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Chindia Targoviste 4–0 Viitorul ŞelimbărLiga II · UTC
  2. Chindia Targoviste 0–1 FC VoluntariCupa României · UTC
  3. Chindia Targoviste 1–2 CS Dinamo BucureștiLiga II · UTC
  4. Chindia Targoviste 3–1 MetaloglobusLiga II · UTC
  5. Chindia Targoviste 3–3 Farul ConstantaLiga I · UTC

Away matches

Petrolul Ploiesti

DLWWL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
7 / 10
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Petrolul Ploiesti scored 7 and conceded 10 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. FCSB 2–2 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I · UTC
  2. Universitatea Cluj 1–0 Petrolul PloiestiCupa României · UTC
  3. Universitatea Cluj 2–3 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I · UTC
  4. FC Voluntari 1–2 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I · UTC
  5. Universitatea Craiova 4–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Chindia Targoviste

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Away matches

Petrolul Ploiesti

Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
1.24 / 6.31
xG per match, for / against
1.24 / 6.31
Goals on this same sample
2 / 2

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. FCSB vs Petrolul Ploiesti xG for / against Petrolul Ploiesti: 1.24 / 6.31 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 10:10 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 10:10 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Chindia Targoviste

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Petrolul Ploiesti

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Chindia Targoviste

14 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 19 Sep 2026 08:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

League position and points: N/A.

Petrolul Ploiesti

1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 02 Oct 2026 08:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

League position and points: N/A.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Petrolul Ploiesti 2–2 Chindia TargovisteFriendlies Clubs · UTC
  2. Chindia Targoviste 0–2 Petrolul PloiestiCupa României · UTC
  3. Petrolul Ploiesti 2–0 Chindia TargovisteFriendlies Clubs · UTC
  4. Chindia Targoviste 1–2 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I · UTC
  5. Petrolul Ploiesti 1–2 Chindia TargovisteLiga I · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 03 Oct 2026 00:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1642945
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
49d68d8d3236cee4eac7158d1e7e785925ff798b3d9b7b46882f4bc52655f169