Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Source status: PEN· no confirmed regulation-time result
Result record v2 · recorded 12 Oct 2026 19:10 UTC. Source synced 12 Oct 2026 19:07 UTC.
Result changes (1)
v1 · P
Initial source observation · 11 Oct 2026 23:20 UTC
Source synced 11 Oct 2026 21:15 UTC · source kickoff 11 Oct 2026 19:00 UTC
v2 · PEN
Source status, score or kickoff changed · 12 Oct 2026 19:10 UTC
Source synced 12 Oct 2026 19:07 UTC · source kickoff 11 Oct 2026 19:00 UTC
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Santa Fe
LWDDW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
6 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%
Santa Fe scored 6 and conceded 5 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Santa Fe 0–1 Deportivo CaliPrimera A · UTC
Santa Fe 1–0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A · UTC
Santa Fe 0–0 Vasco DA GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · UTC
Santa Fe 2–2 Fortaleza FCPrimera A · UTC
Santa Fe 3–2 MillonariosPrimera A · UTC
Away matches
Fortaleza FC
DDDDL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
5 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%
Fortaleza FC scored 5 and conceded 7 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Deportivo Pasto 0–0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A · UTC
Jaguares 2–2 Fortaleza FCPrimera A · UTC
Santa Fe 2–2 Fortaleza FCPrimera A · UTC
Chico 0–0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A · UTC
Llaneros 3–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Santa Fe
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
2.21 / 1.71
xG per match, for / against
1.11 / 0.86
Goals on this same sample
3 / 3
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Santa Fe vs Deportivo CalixG for / against Santa Fe: 1.19 / 0.41
Statistics synced: team 07 Oct 2026 02:25 UTC; opponent 07 Oct 2026 02:25 UTC.
Santa Fe vs MillonariosxG for / against Santa Fe: 1.02 / 1.30
Statistics synced: team 03 Sep 2026 12:02 UTC; opponent 03 Sep 2026 12:02 UTC.
Away matches
Fortaleza FC
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
0.85 / 1.65
xG per match, for / against
0.43 / 0.83
Goals on this same sample
1 / 3
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Chico vs Fortaleza FCxG for / against Fortaleza FC: 0.15 / 1.00
Statistics synced: team 26 Aug 2026 23:02 UTC; opponent 26 Aug 2026 23:02 UTC.
Llaneros vs Fortaleza FCxG for / against Fortaleza FC: 0.70 / 0.65
Statistics synced: team 04 Aug 2026 23:13 UTC; opponent 04 Aug 2026 23:13 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Santa Fe
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Fortaleza FC
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Santa Fe
5.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 06 Oct 2026 00:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
League position and points: N/A.
Fortaleza FC
2.7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 09 Oct 2026 01:10 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Round 1 - Group C
Position 2
Points / played
5 / 4
Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 03:29 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 11 Oct 2026 04:11 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.