State Cup · 26 Oct 2026

Hapoel Ra'anana vs Hapoel Umm al-FahmMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 4–0 · regulation time

Result record v3 · recorded 29 Oct 2026 05:31 UTC. Source synced 28 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.

Source kickoff changed to 28 Oct 2026 17:30 UTC. The original publication retains its scheduled kickoff.

Result changes (2)
  1. v1 · NS Initial source observation · 27 Oct 2026 07:40 UTC Source synced 26 Oct 2026 08:39 UTC · source kickoff 26 Oct 2026 16:00 UTC
  2. v2 · NS Source status, score or kickoff changed · 28 Oct 2026 06:20 UTC Source synced 28 Oct 2026 06:19 UTC · source kickoff 28 Oct 2026 17:30 UTC
  3. v3 · FT · 4–0 Source status, score or kickoff changed · 29 Oct 2026 05:31 UTC Source synced 28 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC · source kickoff 28 Oct 2026 17:30 UTC

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.500 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v3. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
50%
Draw
50%
Away win
0%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 26 Oct 2026 00:16 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Hapoel Ra'anana

DLLWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
10 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Hapoel Ra'anana scored 10 and conceded 5 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Hapoel Ra'anana 1–1 Bnei YehudaLiga Leumit · UTC
  2. Hapoel Ra'anana 1–2 Kafr QasimLiga Leumit · UTC
  3. Hapoel Ra'anana 0–1 Maccabi Kiryat GatLiga Leumit · UTC
  4. Hapoel Ra'anana 6–1 Hapoel Kfar SabaLiga Leumit · UTC
  5. Hapoel Ra'anana 2–0 Maccabi Ahi NazarethLiga Leumit · UTC

Away matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

WDWDW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
10 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scored 10 and conceded 5 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 1–3 Hapoel Umm al-FahmLiga Alef · UTC
  2. Beitar Nahariya 1–1 Hapoel Umm al-FahmLiga Alef · UTC
  3. Tzeirey Tamra 1–2 Hapoel Umm al-FahmLiga Alef · UTC
  4. Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 0–0 Hapoel Umm al-FahmLiga Alef · UTC
  5. Tzeirey Tamra 2–4 Hapoel Umm al-FahmLiga Alef · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Hapoel Ra'anana

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Away matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Hapoel Ra'anana

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Hapoel Ra'anana

3.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 23 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

League position and points: N/A.

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

3.3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 23 Oct 2026 08:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

League position and points: N/A.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 0–3 Hapoel Ra'ananaLiga Leumit · UTC
  2. Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2–3 Hapoel Ra'ananaLiga Leumit · UTC
  3. Hapoel Ra'anana 2–1 Hapoel Umm al-FahmLiga Leumit · UTC
  4. Hapoel Ra'anana 0–0 Hapoel Umm al-FahmLiga Leumit · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 26 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1646147
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
63ab60e06fd946c097bc43b2400645a08e48624c5eecc5a76d519b73e2dd4b40