Super League · 25 Oct 2026

MOFA vs Nairobi City StarsMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Source status: PST · no confirmed regulation-time result

Result record v2 · recorded 26 Oct 2026 09:51 UTC. Source synced 25 Oct 2026 21:19 UTC.

Result changes (1)
  1. v1 · NS Initial source observation · 25 Oct 2026 12:11 UTC Source synced 25 Oct 2026 12:09 UTC · source kickoff 25 Oct 2026 10:00 UTC
  2. v2 · PST Source status, score or kickoff changed · 26 Oct 2026 09:51 UTC Source synced 25 Oct 2026 21:19 UTC · source kickoff 25 Oct 2026 10:00 UTC

Saved forecast evaluation

Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

MOFA

DDWDD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
4 / 3
Over 2.5 frequency
1/5 20%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

MOFA scored 4 and conceded 3 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. MOFA 1–1 Kabati Youth FCSuper League · UTC
  2. MOFA 1–1 Kibera Black StarsSuper League · UTC
  3. MOFA 2–1 Gucha StarsSuper League · UTC
  4. MOFA 0–0 TalantaSuper League · UTC
  5. MOFA 0–0 Mwatate UnitedSuper League · UTC

Away matches

Nairobi City Stars

LDDLL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
2 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

Nairobi City Stars scored 2 and conceded 8 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Talanta 5–1 Nairobi City StarsSuper League · UTC
  2. Kibera Black Stars 0–0 Nairobi City StarsSuper League · UTC
  3. Mombasa Elite 0–0 Nairobi City StarsSuper League · UTC
  4. Equity Bank 1–0 Nairobi City StarsSuper League · UTC
  5. Soy United 2–1 Nairobi City StarsSuper League · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

MOFA

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Away matches

Nairobi City Stars

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

MOFA

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Nairobi City Stars

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

MOFA

134 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 13 Jun 2026 11:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Super League
Position 13
Points / played
0 / 0

Table source synced 25 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.

Nairobi City Stars

134 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 13 Jun 2026 11:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Super League
Position 2
Points / played
0 / 0

Table source synced 25 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 25 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1646783
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
7229ed46fa4f642e4a78717d4a81fbf73730bfbe0167ba92364714f1480ce6da