Home win
- Decimal odds
- 2.54
- Without margin
- 36.22%
- Provider estimate
- 10.00%
- Provider − market
- -26.22 pp
Copa Colombia · 11 Nov 2026
Once Caldas vs Atletico NacionalMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. It is not a live feed.
Recorded match result
Result pending — kickoff has not passed.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 10%
- Draw
- 45%
- Away win
- 45%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 11 Nov 2026 00:09 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 10 Nov 2026 20:07 UTC; synced 11 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC. Saved 11 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 2.88
- Without margin
- 31.94%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +13.06 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 2.89
- Without margin
- 31.83%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +13.17 pp
Raw implied probability total: 108.69%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Once Caldas
WWDWL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 5 / 4
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 1/5 20%
- BTTS frequency
- 2/5 40%
Once Caldas scored 5 and conceded 4 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Once Caldas 1–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A · UTC
- Once Caldas 1–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A · UTC
- Once Caldas 1–1 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A · UTC
- Once Caldas 1–0 LlanerosPrimera A · UTC
- Once Caldas 1–3 BucaramangaPrimera A · UTC
Away matches
Atletico Nacional
DLWLW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 8 / 7
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 2/5 40%
- BTTS frequency
- 3/5 60%
Atletico Nacional scored 8 and conceded 7 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Bucaramanga 1–1 Atletico NacionalPrimera A · UTC
- Cucuta 1–0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A · UTC
- Chico 1–4 Atletico NacionalPrimera A · UTC
- Llaneros 2–0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A · UTC
- Internacional de Bogota 2–3 Atletico NacionalPrimera A · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Once Caldas
Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 6.83 / 3.19
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.71 / 0.80
- Goals on this same sample
- 4 / 1
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas xG for / against Once Caldas: 2.09 / 0.75 Statistics synced: team 09 Nov 2026 11:35 UTC; opponent 09 Nov 2026 11:35 UTC.
- Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar xG for / against Once Caldas: 1.97 / 0.46 Statistics synced: team 05 Nov 2026 13:45 UTC; opponent 05 Nov 2026 13:45 UTC.
- Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira xG for / against Once Caldas: 2.07 / 0.43 Statistics synced: team 03 Nov 2026 14:45 UTC; opponent 03 Nov 2026 14:45 UTC.
- Once Caldas vs Llaneros xG for / against Once Caldas: 0.70 / 1.55 Statistics synced: team 24 Oct 2026 04:15 UTC; opponent 24 Oct 2026 04:15 UTC.
Away matches
Atletico Nacional
Paired xG coverage: 5 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 6.56 / 4.20
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.31 / 0.84
- Goals on this same sample
- 8 / 7
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional xG for / against Atletico Nacional: 1.68 / 1.27 Statistics synced: team 06 Nov 2026 01:20 UTC; opponent 06 Nov 2026 01:20 UTC.
- Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional xG for / against Atletico Nacional: 1.05 / 0.38 Statistics synced: team 04 Nov 2026 23:35 UTC; opponent 04 Nov 2026 23:35 UTC.
- Chico vs Atletico Nacional xG for / against Atletico Nacional: 1.17 / 1.19 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 10:04 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 10:04 UTC.
- Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional xG for / against Atletico Nacional: 1.18 / 0.83 Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 08:15 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 08:15 UTC.
- Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional xG for / against Atletico Nacional: 1.48 / 0.53 Statistics synced: team 01 Oct 2026 16:56 UTC; opponent 01 Oct 2026 16:56 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Once Caldas
Reported absences
- Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Atletico Nacional
Reported absences
- Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Once Caldas
3.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 07 Nov 2026 21:05 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
League position and points: N/A.
Atletico Nacional
3.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 07 Nov 2026 23:10 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
League position and points: N/A.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- Once Caldas 1–0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A · UTC
- Atletico Nacional 2–0 Once CaldasCopa Colombia · UTC
- Once Caldas 0–1 Atletico NacionalCopa Colombia · UTC
- Once Caldas 1–3 Atletico NacionalPrimera A · UTC
- Once Caldas 1–2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 11 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1648691
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- f7080760d349ca672274d5b8d85284b3a6cd5cbb72ffab38a38138d413ec2bb2