Home win
- Decimal odds
- 2.84
- Without margin
- 32.74%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +12.26 pp
Friendlies Clubs · 15 Nov 2026
New York Red Bulls vs Club AmericaMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Awaiting confirmed result.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 45%
- Draw
- 45%
- Away win
- 10%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 15 Nov 2026 00:08 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 14 Nov 2026 20:10 UTC; synced 15 Nov 2026 00:08 UTC. Saved 15 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 3.94
- Without margin
- 23.60%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +21.40 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 2.13
- Without margin
- 43.66%
- Provider estimate
- 10.00%
- Provider − market
- -33.66 pp
Raw implied probability total: 107.54%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
New York Red Bulls
WWLWL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 9 / 6
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 3/5 60%
- BTTS frequency
- 1/5 20%
New York Red Bulls scored 9 and conceded 6 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- New York Red Bulls 3–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- New York Red Bulls 2–0 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer · UTC
- New York Red Bulls 0–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- New York Red Bulls 4–1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer · UTC
- New York Red Bulls 0–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer · UTC
Away matches
Club America
DWWLW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 16 / 11
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 4/5 80%
- BTTS frequency
- 4/5 80%
Club America scored 16 and conceded 11 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–2 Club AmericaLiga MX · UTC
- Atlas 2–5 Club AmericaLiga MX · UTC
- Leon 3–5 Club AmericaLiga MX · UTC
- Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 Club AmericaFriendlies Clubs · UTC
- Necaxa 2–4 Club AmericaLiga MX · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
New York Red Bulls
Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 11.19 / 4.16
- xG per match, for / against
- 2.80 / 1.04
- Goals on this same sample
- 9 / 3
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC xG for / against New York Red Bulls: 2.78 / 0.63 Statistics synced: team 11 Nov 2026 14:15 UTC; opponent 11 Nov 2026 14:15 UTC.
- New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami xG for / against New York Red Bulls: 3.31 / 0.81 Statistics synced: team 03 Nov 2026 13:55 UTC; opponent 03 Nov 2026 13:55 UTC.
- New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC xG for / against New York Red Bulls: 0.94 / 0.60 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 10:35 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 10:35 UTC.
- New York Red Bulls vs San Diego xG for / against New York Red Bulls: 4.16 / 2.12 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 09:24 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 09:24 UTC.
Away matches
Club America
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 6.44 / 5.69
- xG per match, for / against
- 2.15 / 1.90
- Goals on this same sample
- 12 / 7
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club America xG for / against Club America: 1.85 / 1.61 Statistics synced: team 11 Nov 2026 15:15 UTC; opponent 11 Nov 2026 15:15 UTC.
- Atlas vs Club America xG for / against Club America: 2.46 / 2.52 Statistics synced: team 05 Nov 2026 14:15 UTC; opponent 05 Nov 2026 14:15 UTC.
- Leon vs Club America xG for / against Club America: 2.13 / 1.56 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 10:55 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 10:55 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
New York Red Bulls
Reported absences
- Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Club America
Reported absences
- Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
New York Red Bulls
7.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 07 Nov 2026 21:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
League position and points: N/A.
Club America
6.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 08 Nov 2026 03:10 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
League position and points: N/A.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 15 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1649958
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- 3152fb6c71535272ca6061f66dacb75b638680296aa83bf85ecf43b9a1cb1fdd